Let’s be real for a second. If you ripped any packs of Phantasmal Flames or Mega Evolution last year, your wallet is probably still in physical therapy.
The pull rates for those sets were brutal. I remember cracking open a Booster Box of Mega Evolution back-to-back on a Friday night, fully hoping to pull that SIR like Gardevoir ex #178. Instead, I walked away with a stack of bulk, a couple of mediocre Ultra Rares, and a deep sense of existential dread. We’ve all been there.
But a new era is upon us. Ascended Heroes has officially hit the shelves, and after the community has collectively ripped through thousands upon thousands of packs, the data is finally in.
The pull rates in Ascended Heroes are actually better. Well… mostly.
There is a catch, and we need to talk about it before you go maxing out your credit card on Booster Boxes. Let’s break down the math, the reality of the set size, and why you might be struggling to pull one specific basic Common card.
The “God Tier” is Actually Reachable
Let’s start with the big hitters, because that’s what we all care about when we crack a pack.
In the last couple of sets, pulling the top-tier rarities felt like playing the lottery. But Pokémon seems to have listened to the collective groans of the community.
- Mega Hyper Rares (MHR): You are now looking at a 1 in 540 pack pull rate. Now, I know what you’re thinking: “1 in 540 is still insane!” And you aren’t wrong. But let’s put it into perspective. In Mega Evolution and Phantasmal Flames, the MHR pull rate was a staggering 1 in 1,260 packs. They have literally more than doubled your chances of hitting one. It’s still a grail, but it’s no longer an impossible myth.
- Special Illustration Rares (SIR): These are clocking in at around 1 in 70 packs. Again, a massive improvement. Phantasmal Flames was giving them out at 1 in 80, and Mega Evolution was a brutal 1 in 101.
If you are just chasing the dopamine hit of seeing that textured, full-art goodness in the back of the pack, Ascended Heroes is going to feel much more rewarding than anything we’ve opened recently. (Note: These stats don’t even include the “God Packs,” which seem to be popping up a bit more frequently in this set based on what I’m seeing in collector groups!).
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Start Tracking Now — It’s FreeThe Catch: The “Specific Chase” Nightmare
So, the rates are better. Why am I still cautioning you? Because of the set size.
Yes, you will pull an SIR in roughly 1 out of every 70 packs. But Ascended Heroes is absolutely stuffed with different SIRs. So, while you are more likely to pull an SIR, pulling the specific SIR you actually want (like the top Ascended Heroes chase card) is still going to be incredibly difficult. Your pool of potential hits is heavily diluted.
If you are hunting for one specific card to complete your master set, do not try to rip packs to find it. You will go broke. Wait two weeks for the release hype to die down, and buy the single. Your sanity will thank you.
The Mid-Tier Mix-Up: Where Are My Ultra Rares?
Here is where the math gets a little weird, and it actually caught me off guard during my first few openings.
Ascended Heroes introduces the new Mega Attack Rares. They look awesome, and they are pulling at a very friendly rate of 1 in 29 packs.
However, there is a trade-off. These Mega Attack Rares take the physical place of the Ultra Rare (UR) slot in the pack hierarchy. Because they are eating up those slots, standard Ultra Rares are actually harder to pull now.
- Ultra Rares in past sets: 1 in 12 packs.
- Ultra Rares in Ascended Heroes: 1 in 21 packs.
I opened an entire ETB and was so confused as to why I wasn’t hitting standard URs until I realized the Mega Attack Rares were hijacking the pulls. It’s a fun new mechanic, but don’t be shocked if your UR stack looks a little thin this time around.
For the rest of the standard hits, things have remained perfectly stable:
- Illustration Rares (IR): 1 in 9 packs.
- Double Rares (DR): 1 in 5 packs.
The “Common” Card Crisis
I have to share a hilarious (and slightly frustrating) learning experience from this set.
While we are all obsessing over SIRs and MHRs, the players in the community are fighting for their lives, trying to pull a simple Common item card: Poke Pad #198
Because the set is so large, even the Common pool is heavily diluted. I have buddies who have opened two entire Booster Boxes and haven’t pulled a single Poke Pad—a card that is practically mandatory as a 4-of in several top-tier competitive decks right now. Statistically, you only have about a 50% chance of pulling a Poke Pad in 15 packs.
It’s a bizarre world where I am pulling gorgeous Illustration Rares left and right, but I’m having to go to TCGplayer to buy $0.25 Common cards (which now, due to scarcity is going for 5 dollars+… just to build a playable deck. If you are opening bulk, sort your playable Trainers out! People need them!
The Final Verdict
Despite the weird product release calendar, Ascended Heroes is a fun set to open. First set I have enjoyed ripping since the White Flare and Black Bolt. The pull rates are undeniably more generous than the dark days of the previous block, and opening a Booster Box actually feels fun again rather than feeling like a punishment.
My advice? If you are someone who loves to rip packs, this is the set to do it. The hit rates for IRs and SIRs will keep the dopamine flowing. But remember the golden rule of collecting: If you are chasing one specific card, let someone else gamble. Buy the single.
Happy hunting out there, and may your centering always be pristine!
